Does anyone even want 3D?
One of the trends at CES this year was 3D video. It seems that the industry is moving in that direction at a rapid pace: a year ago, 3D was reserved for the theatres, and even the idea of having it in your living room seemed far fetched. If things like CSS3 and HTML5, or even high definition video, moved from idea to market as quickly as 3D seems to be, we'd all be a happier species.
But wait - do we even want 3D?
It seems like every time Engadget talked about 3D at CES, they groaned about one thing: the glasses. They're a pain at the theatres, but I can't imagine how irritating they would be at home, when I really want to just lie down on the couch and watch a movie casually. Not only that, but in order to watch a 3D movie effectively, you need to stare directly at the screen. This might seem like a minor point, and for many, maybe it is. But if I've got people over, crammed into our small media room, more than a few people will be at a non-optimal viewing angle. Add on top of that the physical pain that can come from extended viewing of 3D (I'm not the only one who gets headaches from it), and you've got a recipe for disaster.
This whole thing doesn't seem well thought out at all.
To put it simply, I think the industry has moved far too quickly in a direction that has little demand. I'd be perfectly happy to watch a 3D movie, but I really prefer to watch them in a theatre. Once they really start pushing 3D, I won't have a choice: it'll be 3D, or not watching the movie at all. That is, if people buy the equipment. And I really don't think they will. Unlike HD, 3D really isn't worth upgrading to: it's a gimmick that has limited application, and comes with painful headaches (literally).
The Relevance of a Possible Apple Tablet
Everyone's heard enough about it already, I know. But while there's been a lot of talk about the purported "iSlate" that Cupertino is widely expected to release on January 27, there hasn't been a lot of thought. What I'd like to look at is the possibility that the iSlate will do for the tablet/slate/MID/magical-touchscreen market what the iPhone did for the phone market, the iPod did for the MP3 player market, and yes, even what the Mac did for the PC market back in that year that Orwell prophesied about.
It's really not far fetched. This device has been so well protected: not since the release of the iPhone have we speculated so much on a product we know so little about. Apple is protecting this thing like its first born child. It's something special, and when Apple has something special, it tends to turn heads.
Now, let's take a look at the tablet market right now: sure, a lot of new tablets or "slates" have been released at CES, but none have really gotten much interest. They are all just like what the smartphone market was like in January of 2007: they don't serve much purpose if they run a custom operating system, and if they run Windows 7, they just don't work well at all: a desktop operating system should stay on desktops and laptops.
If this device really exists (and let's be honest here, it does), we're about to see another paradigm shift in the technology market. For a year or two, we'll see cheap imitations of the "iSlate". And then someone like Google or Palm will come along with their own Android or WebOS respectively, and competition will be good. Maybe Microsoft will tag along with their own OS 2 years after the competition does, too. The iSlate will probably remain on top, because that Apple brand has fans who won't stop at anything, but the competition could very well be better.
